Michael Moore Was Right in 2016—But Is He Wrong Now? My Open Letter to the Docu-tainment King.
Michael Moore––stellar director of Roger and Me, and Fahrenheit 9/11––just predicted a Harris win in the Electoral College. I respect Moore's film chops, humor, and honesty. But I have to push back.
Dear Comrade:
With interest, I read your post this week, “Do the Math: Trump is Toast,” in which you predict a Harris win in November. Given your strong prognostication record from 2016––when you prophecied a blue-collar move towards the GOP nominee––I respect your POV, as I had previously echoed your themes on Huffington Post and was happy to find a fellow traveler who grasped the Trump dynamic.
While I had not yet bought an E-ticket on the Trump Train, I understood eight years ago that the garish real estate braggart––who transplanted New Yorkers like yourself love to lampoon––had achieved the miraculous. Trump grasped that the forgotten working men and women of the Rust Belt––who’d been promised high-wage “21st Century jobs” in Bill and Hillary’s global economic shell game––had been callously left behind as manufacturing jobs were shipped to China and farm work doled out to cheaper, non-unionized illegal immigrants. Hillary’s “deplorables” had been, instead, sent off to fight unilateral NeoCon wars of choice––for the very Cheney-Bush chicken hawks backing Harris’s campaign today. The resulting opioid crisis from the PTSD of war, unemployment, and cross-generational futility made these voters primed for Trump’s populist plucking.
Michael, I have liberal relatives and former congressional staffer pals in the Detroit metro area. I’ve always appreciated the unabashed and courageous honesty of Michiganders. Case in point: bipartisan Democrat Representative Debbie Dingell, whose office worked closely with the office of Congressman Jeff Fortenberry (NE-01)––during my tenure as his Comms Director––on the innovative Recovering America’s Wildlife Act (RAWA). This week, Dingell went on Mediabuzz––the only Sunday news show worth watching––to say she was not confident about Michigan. She said it would be very close as union voters turned to Trump. That’s the kind of honesty you rarely get from Democrats, who are often so Trump-deranged they cannot see the Upper Peninsula forest from the Royal Oak trees. The Real Clear Politics poll of polls today shows Ms. Dingell was prescient. Harris’s lead in The Great Lakes State dramatically shrank after Dingell––no doubt seeing internal party polling––spoke on Fox. Trump is now up in Michigan for the first time in months.
Still, I agree with your analysis that this election remains Harris’s to lose, especially after her debate “win,” if you can call an annoying 3-on-1 barrage of low-brow policy-lite pablum a “win.” Orange’s failure to negotiate better terms––one debate on Fox, one on CNN with no interruptions or fact-checking by anti-Trump hosts––hurt him. The Art of the Deal author made a lousy deal.
As I have written in The Crotty Farm Report, Trump is an atrocious debater. Unlike his Yale-educated sidekick, J.D. Vance, Trump does not fully prepare. He doesn’t name-check his policy triumphs (The Abraham Accords, The Great American Outdoors Act, Operation Warp Speed, the Paycheck Protection Program, and Remain in Mexico). He is repetitious, short on details and nuance, gets drawn off course, and engages in too much hyperbole. Kamala has an off-puttingly odd and nasal speaking style, but that debate helped her.
Though a fellow Cornhusker, Walz was a debate night joke compared to any Vice Presidential candidate in the last twenty years. He got crushed by the Hillbilly Elegy author, but that thrashing has only now started to show up in the RCP poll of polls. As Democratic media say that Trump is too senile to be president, they are unwittingly making the case for Vance. The Appalachian Kid has a vast and growing voter appeal from Kentucky through West Virginia, Indiana through Western Pennsylvania, and into Ohio and Michigan. Swing voters loved Trump's economic policies but were skittish about his mercurial personality and behavior on J6. Vance gives these voters the “permission structure” to vote MAGA again.
This week, Trump pulled ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania and remains strong in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina after Harris’s loopy stoner word salad was exposed Sunday in a favorably edited episode of “60 Minutes.” Adhering to the risk-averse Hillary script from 2016, Harris has still not done a proper press conference. That is a bad omen. Rushing to appear on softball pro-Democratic shows like “The View,” the sick and creepy "Howard Stern,” and the formerly clever Stephen Colbert (with whom she shared a beer as Hurricane Milton hit) will not change the perception that she is unable to contend with confrontation on her lies, flip-flops, and abject failures on crime, the border, and inflation. Unlike California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, she lacks the courage and confidence to be interviewed on Fox, let alone Breitbart News, where the blue-collar men and women she hopes to persuade reside. Woke networks like CBS and NBC cannot save her, as they lose all credibility for going easy on Harris and other prominent black figures, lest they appear “racist.”
I predicted earlier this year that Biden––even with his cognitive defects, transparent corruption while Vice President, repeated lies about Trump and Republicans, open border, his party’s war on cops and bailing out of rioters, a world at war, and massive inflation on his watch––would still win in 2024, due to his appeal to older white males, and just enough of the black, Hispanic, Asian, and young white Obama coalition.
Even after his horrifically bad debate that revealed Kamala and Company’s cover-up of his physical decline, I still thought Biden could win given the Dems’ infamously effective “ground game.” If Sleepy Joe in his compromised state had a chance, Harris did too, especially since she seemed more likable, kicky, and fun than Biden or Hillary and had the same corrupt media, Big Tech, Wall Street donors, deep state and administrative state forces behind her.
But Kamala has continued to present two inescapable problems for Democrats. First, she is losing men over 70, who gravitated to the older Biden during the 2020 COVID election––hiding Joe was viewed as a reassuring plus––and are now drifting back to 2016 form. And she is bleeding young black and Hispanic men who see in the blue-collar billionaire a kindred spirit. Though she and Walz continue to brazenly lie about Trump’s state-centered position on abortion––Trump fulsomely opposes a federal ban––they will still get a substantial female turnout on that issue alone. Will it be enough to counter their losses with older voters and minority men? Don’t bank on it, since, as even Democrats confirm, there might still be massive undercounting of the shy Trump voter in mainstream media polling. If a state has voter ID requirements, that will further depress Democratic turnout. All seven swing states— Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin––have adopted new voter ID laws since the admitted Democratic shenanigans of 2020.
Michael, you predict that Harris will pull this out 270-268 by winning the blue dot that demarcates my hometown of Omaha, Nebraska. While that would be compelling, I doubt the sincerity of your conclusion. I sense you are now uncharacteristically afraid to tell the truth again, lest you run afoul of your Democratic media and entertainment backers.
Here’s how I get to my numbers.
1. Nevada.
You said Harris will lose The Silver State. I believe she will turn out the service workers in Las Vegas and Reno and win the state by a smidge. Her Nevada support remains strong in RCP polls despite her collapsing support elsewhere. The army of left-wing canvassers from nearby CA will help close the deal. Plus, an abortion-rights measure is on the Nevada ballot. Democrats lead Republicans by a third this election in new voter registrants, mostly among pro-choice women. That will play a significant role in Nevada. Crotty take: Lean Harris.
2. Arizona.
As wacky as the Arizona GOP is and as controversial and iconoclastic as its candidates can be, Arizona remains close. But without the Democratic service worker union power of Las Vegas––not all unions are the same––Trump pulls this state out due to Arizona’s plethora of fixed-income retirees who are not enamored of Harris’s “tax-the-rich” insanity. Trump’s rising popularity among Hispanic males helps. The RCP confirms his steady lead, though a large number of new young female registrants and an abortion-rights measure to boot will make the Grand Canyon State closer than it seems. If Arizona establishment Republicans are still aggrieved by how they were treated by Trump in late 2020––watch Stopping the Steal on HBO––there could be an election night shocker in store. Crotty take: Lean Trump.
3. North Carolina.
The Tar Heel State seems like a tempting prospect for Harris, given her ability to turn out massive numbers of black women in a state that is 20% African-American, combined with dramatically expanded voter registrations among young pro-choice women. The controversial black GOP candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, does not help the Trump cause. But just like Minnesota for Trumpers, North Carolina will again be close but no cigar. The slow, weak, and tone-deaf Biden/Harris response to Hurricane Helene has not helped. Crotty take: Lean Trump.
4. Georgia.
Trump has made a fragile peace with GOP Governor Brian Kemp. Their disunity, and Trunp’s crazy self-defeating scares around mail-in voting, cost Republicans the Senate in 2020. While Kamala will dramatically outperform among black women––in a state that is over 30% African-American––she might underperform with black and Hispanic men. The untethered, corrupt, and incompetent lawfare from preposterous Fulton County DA Fani Willis has created sympathy for Trump among urban minority voters. Though the migration of left-wing Californians and New Yorkers to staff Georgia’s expanding film and TV industry has turned formerly red Georgia purple, Kamala will lose The Peach State by a hair as the Confederacy sans Virginia returns to post-Dixiecrat form. This is true even with the “historic” nature of Harris’s female Indian-Jamaican candidacy. Crotty take: Lean Trump.
5. Wisconsin.
The Badger State is much closer than polls indicate. It is not guaranteed to Harris at all. Even with his aw-shucks, “I’m a knucklehead,” hoser schtick, Tim Walz is not closing the deal there as expected given the proximity of his adopted state of Minnesota. Wisconsin experienced riots, looting, and arson, too, after Walz, as Minnesota governor, let Antifa/BLM terrorists have free reign. It is now clear that Tim Walz is not “presidential.” Harris is paying dearly for picking a “weird” doofus who makes her look plausible instead of choosing a rival with gravitas like Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. The smooth, powerful, and inspiring GOP convention in Milwaukee––coming right after Trump was almost assassinated in Butler, PA––worked. “All politics is local,” said Rep. Tip O’Neill. Sconnies saw the best of the GOP. Don’t be shocked if Trump wins the state. But until we get new state polling confirming what we see in Michigan and Pennsylvania, I have Trump barely losing. Crotty Take: Lean Harris.
6. Michigan.
Debbie Dingell cannot tell a lie. She floated the same warning this past Sunday that she did in 2016: the race in her state is close. The Arab vote will matter, even as Harris tries to inch away from Biden on Hamas, the Hezzies, and Houthis. Unforced error on “The View”: Harris also says that inflationary big-government policies under her reign will be the same as under Joe.
Left-wing anti-semitism on college campuses and in city streets was and remains very real. We saw that again on the anniversary of October 7. Though Jews are among the most strident Trump-haters––having swallowed whole the lies about Trump being a “Nazi”––moderate Jewish influencers, such as hedge fund guru Bill Ackman, are leading the charge against Democratic anti-Semitism. Harris could lose just enough suburban Jews, Arabs, and union voters to lose The Wolverine State. Though the Dems will benefit from a massive outpouring of pro-choicers in Ann Arbor, Detroit, and its suburbs, Michigan shocks the world again. Crotty take: Lean Trump.
7. Pennsylvania
The dynamics of The Commonwealth are slightly different than Michigan––Harris will benefit from left-wing canvassers pouring in from nearby Gotham (I know, I was once one myself behind John Kerry!). She will run up the score in historically corrupt Philly and its liberal suburbs. Still, as Trump's ads during Sunday night’s Steelers game showed, he’s banking on Central and Western Pennsylvania, where he is beloved. The two assassination attempts have helped Trump immensely. In the epicenter of the shy Trump voter, Trump carries PA by an ear. Crotty take: Lean Trump.
Michael, in my current analysis, Trump carries Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. But if he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, he likely wins Wisconsin. This race is highly volatile, with news flow generating significant shifts in poll numbers. But the trend seems to be The Donald’s friend.
Crotty take: Trump wins it all despite strenuous Democratic efforts to “kill” him off.
From the blue dot,
James Marshall Crotty
The Crotty Farm Report:
Not rooting for The Orange Man OR his opponent but enjoyed your take. Keep doin’ us Husker-expats proud!