Joe Biden has 99 problems, but Trump ain't one.

If you only read MAGA media or the RCP poll of polls, you might be fooled into thinking that Orange is crushing it. You’d be wrong.

Joe Biden is barely holding it together. He has been a colossal failure on immigration, crime, and spending. He likely used the VP’s office as a piggy bank. Yet Donald Trump has taken insufficient advantage of Biden’s failings and fallings. As Taylor Swift might sing, this spells “trouble, trouble, trouble” for the GOP come fall.

Barring a Black Swan Event between now and Election Day, here are 24 reasons why Trump is going to lose “bigly” in 2024:

1. MAGA blithely ignores empirical results. Trump cost Republicans in 2018, 2020, and 2022. There is zero evidence that his “loser” trend is over. With Biden’s polling numbers tanking among core constituencies, Democrats are exhibiting their customary second-term fear and loathing. Though the pundit class obsesses over polls, they are not the best predictor of future results. Voting is. And Dems keep winning. Special elections and ballot measures outside major elections prove the point: Trump and the GOP have been in an electoral rut since 2016.

2. Trump is not sufficiently expanding his base, which remains at an upper limit of 47% of the popular vote. In no poll is Trump able to cross the 50% threshold. While the mix of Trump voters is changing––more working-class non-college Asians, blacks, and Hispanics to go along with his original coalition of non-college working-class whites––he is still unable to win over college-educated whites, who turned hard against him in 2020 and have not drifted back much since. Trump’s ad hominem assault on Nikki Haley is pushing her college-educated voters away, precisely when he needs them most. Biden does not enthuse college-educated voters, but they will, when push comes to shove, pick Geriatric Joe over Bogeyman Trump.

3. MAGA is more interested in playing the victim card than going door-to-door winning the swing vote. When they lose, MAGA says the system is "rigged," when they could have gone out hard and won. Dems do the work. You see their get-out-the-vote canvassers everywhere. The GOP is lazy, un-strategic, and tone-deaf on key swing issues like abortion. And they are divided, with weak leadership at the top. In their palpable Trump derangement, the Democratic Party has been at war with truth, due process, and the rule of law for over eight years. But GOP leaders think it’s business as usual; that their function is to haggle over how much taxpayer loot to spend, rather than demolish the other team over their corrupt and criminal shenanigans. The Democrats are playing bareknuckle boxing with the winner decided by TKO. Republicans are playing a languid game of cricket, with a nice tea to follow.

4. Trump the Narcissist has the fire and humor GOP leadership lacks. But he lacks nuance, self-control, and flexibility, let alone any capacity for atonement. So, he has permanently lost most white suburban women. They are not coming back. Nikki Haley is running on a 2004 Paul Ryan/Dick Cheney supply-side NeoCon platform that's popular with only 10% of today's GOP. Yet she is getting close to 40% of the vote in some GOP primaries. That is a horrible sign.

5. The famed "quiet voter" this cycle is not the Trump voter, but the anti-Trump GOP voter. We see this in Trump’s inability to match his primary results with what polls predict. In every 2024 primary, Trump has over-polled and under-delivered––a clear sign of the quiet anti-Trumper at play.

6. The GOP has no universally loved celebrities. They are awful at recruiting, training, and funding charismatic swing candidates who can win, erecting a giant hard-right abortion litmus list that scares most moderates away. Dems have Taylor Swift, who will bring out 5-10 million young Democratic voters just by herself. The Taylor/Barbie cohort is "never, ever, ever getting back together" with the GOP, let alone Trump.

7. Abortion: Republicans blew it. The Supreme Court in Dobbs rightly left the abortion issue up to states: nowhere in hell does the Constitution protect a woman’s right to infanticide. Then the GOP confirmed to moderate pro-choice voters that they were as unhinged as feared, passing six-week bans and other draconian measures, such as punishing women for traveling to a pro-choice state to get an abortion. If the GOP were as uniformly tough on Biden’s broken border, Democratic-enabled crime, and the Democrat politicization of justice as they are on the rights of the fetus, this election would be theirs.

8. Money: Dems have a lot more money in the bank, and it will only grow, as Trump spends chunks of his campaign haul, by Democratic design, on defending himself in court. While the New York City cases against Trump are outrageously unfair and specious, and Jack Smith’s DC case a stretch, Smith’s Florida documents case is Trump’s Achilles heel and Fraudster Fani’s Georgia case is no walk in the park.

9. The economy: people have jobs. That matters.

10. Old people prefer Old Joe. They were the decisive factor in 2020. While Joe’s hold on Democratic Socialist voters has waned in the wake of the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, his hold on oldsters has grown since 2020. And the revenge of the mature Jewish voter has not materialized. They may kvetch about left-wing antisemitism on college campuses and from The Squad, but that does not mean they are backing Trump.

11. The Border was a potentially decisive issue for the GOP. But now Biden, right or wrong, can blame GOP intransigence. The Senate compromise bill that packaged aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan with token border security measures was a joke, but, due to feckless GOP messaging, Biden can hang the broken border around the GOP’s neck, even though he caused the crisis.

12. The Stock Market: moderates are feeling flush on paper with the S & P at all-time highs, even though the rally has been driven primarily by only a few stocks, AI powerhouse Nvidia chief among them.

13. Bidenflation is still too high, but getting better, with projections for even lower inflation come the start of early voting in September. Yes, September.

14. Trump trials: he will likely lose MOST of them. While the Democratic politicization of justice has helped Trump portray himself as a “martyr,” driving support among the Deep MAGA faithful he already owns, it has not persuaded the moderate white college-educated voters he needs. Unlike most of MAGA, college-educated voters can parse the parts of the 2020 election that were sketchy––mass mailing of unsolicited ballots, unilateral changes to state election laws without state legislative approval, election interference by still un-prosecuted intel chiefs claiming that the mere existence of Hunter’s laptop was “Russian disinformation”––from de minimus cases of real fraud.

15. Getting out the vote: Dems know where their voters are, or “buried,” and, however unenthused, they will get them to vote by hook or crook, including ballot harvesting. See Obama's easy second-term win in 2012, with a generally un-enthused base. The Dems get out the low-intensity voter.

16. Big Tech censorship and downranking: you cannot easily find positive, conservative, GOP, let alone pro-Trump news and opinion in search or on social media unless you try very hard. The Left has so effectively caricatured and Balkanized reliably sourced alternative media–-The Crotty Farm Report, The Free Press, IBD, The Intercept, Real Clear Politics––that the mainstream media narrative can run free without an effective, easily discovered, bulwark. The Twitter Files exposed the unholy alliance between the deep state and social media to censor Republican speech, but it got little traction.

17. Trump is a bit off his game, cutting into the “Biden-is-senile” trope. Orange feels a trifle tired, his shtick is old, and centrist and captivating Ivanka and Jared are out of the picture, having sold their souls to the Saudis and the murderous MBS. As Salazzo might say to Tom Hagen, “The Don is slippin'."

18. Inertia: dirty little secret is, people hate change. Things have to be monumentally bad for Americans to switch. Better the devil they know.

19. Swing state polling: despite his horrible record on the border, crime, Afghanistan, the debt, spending, and inflation, in addition to his clear corruption while VP, Biden is remarkably up or tied in polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Dems close hard, so they only need two of the remaining four swing states––Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or Michigan––to pull this out. If Trump was to have a shot, he needed to be up by 10 points in swing states at this juncture, given the vaunted Democratic ground game and his over-polling. He's not. RFK, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornell West won't save him. And most of those “non-committals” in the Michigan Democratic primary will come home to Biden come November.

20. The key issue facing our country--the politicization of justice and the openly admitted deep state plan to again thwart Trump should he be elected--is not registering with swing voters. Heck, it's not even registering on my Facebook feed! Democrats are not bothered by the politicization of justice, as long as they "Get Trump." That this is Stalinist or Banana Republic behavior matters to them not one jot. If they eviscerate the Constitution and directly harm the republic and its core institutions, it's all worth it as long as they get their man. They will keep throwing Soros-funded foot soldiers into the fray--Bragg, James, Willis--until the job is done.

21. Another big issue--state-sponsored DEI racism and sexism--is also not registering. Many voters quietly complain about the injustice of Woke quotas at work, in education, and in nonprofit and government grants, as well as the safety concerns of hiring based on race instead of competence. See: https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Reality-Truths-about-America/dp/1641771976?dplnkId=75971618-fe50-4bac-adf3-650bc6ef44a2&nodl=1. But they don't vote on it.

22. Two-tiered justice: that the Dems successfully ran a year-long infomercial on January 6 but did nothing to investigate and punish the far-worse Summer of Insurrection is one of the great travesties of our era. No one cares because Dems control the media, search, and social media narrative. This means their hypocritical and deceptive "threat to democracy" lie will again play well in 2024.

23. Anarchy in the streets: due to effective bamboozlement around the death of George Floyd and the real reasons for the disproportionately high incidence of African-American arrests––per FBI stats, blacks commit over 60% of violent crimes though they are only 13% of the overall population–– Americans have a high tolerance for Dem-enabled crime, litter, looting, dysfunction, and homelessness. They don't seem to talk about it, let alone vote on it, lest they be unfairly labeled “racist.”

24. Ukraine. Most Americans still quietly support the war, as long as our men and women aren't fighting. And unless our men and women are fighting, Ukraine can’t win. It’s a non-issue.

This election is likely over. Trump has no shot unless Joe Biden keels over and dies. And likely not even then. I likely won’t be sticking around long after to reside in the Woke violent apocalypse a second Biden term would engender. I will be traveling to where taxes are low, criminals are punished, illegal immigrants are deported, budgets are balanced, justice is blind, free speech is protected, and young men and women are not sent off to fight forever wars of choice for the chickenhawk globalist elite.