Like a good hedgehog, Kamala Harris has a singular, easy path to election victory: win the former blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and carry the purple dot of Omaha. Given that the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average shows Harris up in Michigan and Wisconsin (if barely) and by a lot in the tie-breaking Nebraska district of CD-2, her focused strategy seems, at least superficially, to be paying off.
But she is down by about .3% in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, where she has not been up in the RCP polling average for weeks. Since the Butler, PA rally, the first of several assassination attempts and plots on Trump’s life––enabled in part by dangerous Democrat rhetoric that “Trump is Hitler”––Pennsylvania has remained stubbornly pro-Trump. Even Democrat Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman had to admit to the pro-Democrat New York Times, “Anybody spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing,” Fetterman said of support for Trump in The Keystone State.
If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she still has a path to victory through some of the remaining four swing states––Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Her ground game is solid in Georgia, but Trump is up there and in Arizona––at percentages in both states almost beyond the margin of error.
But things are close in the delegate-rich Tarheel State, recently battered by Hurricane Helene and a clumsy Biden/Harris response to the disaster. Should Harris win North Carolina and Nevada, she can still win the election even if she loses Pennsylvania. However, Trump is currently up in both states and closing strong in determinedly libertarian New Hampshire—showing that his foxy weave strategy might be paying dividends––presenting a last-minute quandary for hedgehog Harris. Still, the cleanest path for her and Trump remains through Pennsylvania.
The race should not be this close. Harris is staggeringly wrong on every issue that matters to voters but one: Trump went off the rails in the days up to and including January 6, 2021. Though many Democrats engaged in widespread election denialism with every Republican victory since 2000––including refusing to certify in 2017––and enabled the terroristic Antifa/BLM Summer of Insurrection, Harris has nothing else to run on since Trump is an abortion moderate, despite her lies to the contrary. Moreover, her administration has failed miserably on the border, with inflation, and in fostering peace and security at home and abroad.
So, once again, a pivotal American election comes down to an up-or-down vote on Donald J. Trump's personality—not his extraordinary policies that kept Americans prosperous, secure, and free from censorship, lawfare, and surveillance.
So far, Democrats are winning many of the early votes in Pennsylvania. But MAGA closes hard, and Pennsylvania swing voters have seen first-hand how Democratic rhetoric and policies under the guise of “saving democracy” can end up killing it.
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