Excellent analysis. I just don't see PA voting against their own Scranton Joe, though the fracking workers of the Marcellus Shale might have the final say. And if the black male turn to Trump that we see in MI is also true in Philly, who knows. I remain fairly convinced about GA returning to GOP form. I think Kari Lake and Trump will motivate a reasonable legislative abortion compromise in AZ muting the recent draconian court ruling there. I think Trump sneaks by in AZ, in part because Lake's opponent is pretty bland. Nevada always seems close for Trump, but I am not buying he gets over the hump. And the Trump win in WI in 2016 was a fluke. I think it comes down to AZ, GA, and MI. I expect a late night in the Great Lakes State.
I'm reading that it doesn't look like the abortion referendum will make it on the ballot in PA this time. But you're right that it seems it will in AZ and combined with the news there, I'd bet against Trump winning AZ.
It also seems a good bet to say that while Trump may have grown his Hispanic support, a lot of it will probably manifest in the form of lower Hispanic turnout for Biden than it will in actual votes for Trump. That's only worth half as much.
Partly for that reason, I also have trouble thinking that Trump wins NV, which he lost twice already, and it wasn't especially close either time.
It also doesn't seem like the elector change in NE is happening.
So the states that are most in play for him to flip are GA, PA, MI, and WI. He came a lot closer in PA and GA than MI last time, so assuming I'm right about no abortion referendum in PA, PA+GA is the likeliest path. If he can't win PA, he needs all 3 of GA+MI+WI. But I'd say we should place our bets on PA being Trump's tipping point state, as it was last time.
Excellent analysis. I just don't see PA voting against their own Scranton Joe, though the fracking workers of the Marcellus Shale might have the final say. And if the black male turn to Trump that we see in MI is also true in Philly, who knows. I remain fairly convinced about GA returning to GOP form. I think Kari Lake and Trump will motivate a reasonable legislative abortion compromise in AZ muting the recent draconian court ruling there. I think Trump sneaks by in AZ, in part because Lake's opponent is pretty bland. Nevada always seems close for Trump, but I am not buying he gets over the hump. And the Trump win in WI in 2016 was a fluke. I think it comes down to AZ, GA, and MI. I expect a late night in the Great Lakes State.
Enjoyed the thoughts.
I'm reading that it doesn't look like the abortion referendum will make it on the ballot in PA this time. But you're right that it seems it will in AZ and combined with the news there, I'd bet against Trump winning AZ.
It also seems a good bet to say that while Trump may have grown his Hispanic support, a lot of it will probably manifest in the form of lower Hispanic turnout for Biden than it will in actual votes for Trump. That's only worth half as much.
Partly for that reason, I also have trouble thinking that Trump wins NV, which he lost twice already, and it wasn't especially close either time.
It also doesn't seem like the elector change in NE is happening.
So the states that are most in play for him to flip are GA, PA, MI, and WI. He came a lot closer in PA and GA than MI last time, so assuming I'm right about no abortion referendum in PA, PA+GA is the likeliest path. If he can't win PA, he needs all 3 of GA+MI+WI. But I'd say we should place our bets on PA being Trump's tipping point state, as it was last time.
Excellent analysis. I have to double check on PA. I thought the abortion referendum was happening there.